|   | CMU-ISRI-07-102 Institute for Software Research
 School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University
 
    
     
 CMU-ISRI-07-102
 
The Role of Dynamic-NetworkMulti-Agent Models of Socio-Polical Systems in Policy
 
Marcus A. Louie, Kathleen M. Carley 
January 2007  
CASOS Technical Report 
CMU-ISRI-07-102.pdf Keywords: Multi-agent modeling, validation, social network 
modeling, simulation, social systems
 Researchers and policy makers are increasingly turning to 
multi-agent and dynamic-network multi-agent
models to study real-world systems. The models hold particular 
appeal because of their intuitive representation of
complex real-world systems that can be thought of as "complex systems."
Both policy makers and those affected by
the policies influenced by these models often question whether a 
model is valid. We explore the intended use of
these models, the extent to which they can be validated, and the 
consequent implications for their use in setting
policy. We ground the analysis using a dynamic-network 
multi-agent model we are helping to develop called the
Regional Threat Evaluator (RTE), applied to data from Indonesia
and Thailand. We find that there are three core
difficulties in validating these models: defining the appropriate
operating domain, data availability, and validating a
model that integrates multiple theories.
 
41 pages 
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